“As you can see from our second quarter numbers, our growth profile has remained steady over the last two fiscal years. We’re well ahead of our competitors and compare favorably to similar businesses in other industries. We’re a solid bet, and this planned expansion will put us over the top. Phrederick, why don’t you show them the projections.”
“Um, yes, well. We’ve implemented real-time tracking and instant balance sheets using a proprietary method I developed. Our Q3 numbers so far are solid, with revenue equaling 75% of last year’s Q3 after only 6 weeks. Moreover, that puts our YTD revenue at 85% of last year with more than a quarter to go.”
“Excellent, Phrederick. But I think our guests might want to hear about the numbers for the new product line.”
“Right. So, we’ve priced the new line out at $45-65 a unit, which represents actual costs plus margin. We know the overall market last year represented $600 million in revenue, and around 11 million existing units sold.”
“Excuse me, but I’m having trouble following the math. Could you just project out the bottom-line numbers for us, please?”
“Yes, we’re most interested in seeing what you expect the fiscal year-end to be both before and after implementation of the new expansion and product line.”
“Oh, well, um… We don’t have any orders yet for the following year—”
“Pardon us, ladies, but I think my colleague and I need to caucus for a moment.” He ushers Phrederick’s nervous, gray bulk out of the room. “Phrederick, what the hell are you doing? This is a $400 million loan we’re seeking! We need the financials to boost our leverage, not to make us look hesitant.”
“I’m sorry, James, but you know doing a forecast isn’t my thing.”
“But Rita left you her models, right? I mean you can do them mechanically, can’t you?”
“Eh, I just don’t think a simple extrapolation can really capture the unpredictability of the market, world events, or—”
“Jesus, Phrederick, those ladies from the bank do this all the time! They know the projections mean nothing, they just want to see a feel-good story while they sign the paperwork.”
“I’m sorry, James. I just can’t put my name to numbers I don’t feel good about.”
“Alright, it’s fine. I got this. We’ll just hope Rita can get on this as soon as she’s back from her honeymoon.” James straightens his tie and returns to the meeting room.
“Ladies, please forgive me. I feel that I have done a disservice in pushing to have this meeting today. The fact of the matter is, our projections specialist is on her honeymoon, and it was insensitive to ask my colleague Phrederick to step in on this task. If I could beg your indulgence, we would be happy to reconvene—”
“Oh, stop worrying, James. We understand. The numbers are great, and everyone wants this deal.”
“Yes, we realized the issue as soon as you left.”
“Indeed, and no bother. Everyone knows elephants never forecast.”